A positive start to the week for USD/CAD leaves the pair staging a concerted challenge on the major cluster of resistances at 1.2632/53. Economists at Credit Suisse continue to look for a clear and sustained move above here to establish a major base to turn the broader risks higher. USD/CAD is staging a concerted challenge on the major cluster of resistances at 1.2632/53, which includes the 200-day average, the 23.6% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bear trend, and a cluster of price highs. With weekly MACD momentum having already turned higher we continue to look for a clear and sustained move above here to establish a major base to turn the broader risks higher.
We would see initial resistance at 1.2751/64, the highs from February, then 1.2881, with the size of the potential base suggesting a move to 1.3024 is possible, the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2021 fall. Near-term support moves to 1.2608, then 1.2577/72, with 1.2561 ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. “Below 1.2561, USD/CAD can see a pullback towards the 13-day exponential average and price support at 1.2503/01, but with good buying expected to show ahead of here. 
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A positive start to the week for USD/CAD leaves the pair staging a concerted challenge on the major cluster of resistances at 1.2632/53. Economists at Credit Suisse continue to look for a clear and sustained move above here to establish a major base to turn the broader risks higher. USD/CAD is staging a concerted challenge on the major cluster of resistances at 1.2632/53, which includes the 200-day average, the 23.6% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bear trend, and a cluster of price highs. With weekly MACD momentum having already turned higher we continue to look for a clear and sustained move above here to establish a major base to turn the broader risks higher.
We would see initial resistance at 1.2751/64, the highs from February, then 1.2881, with the size of the potential base suggesting a move to 1.3024 is possible, the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2021 fall. Near-term support moves to 1.2608, then 1.2577/72, with 1.2561 ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. “Below 1.2561, USD/CAD can see a pullback towards the 13-day exponential average and price support at 1.2503/01, but with good buying expected to show ahead of here.